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Theoretical Probability

Investigating Theoretical Probability

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Application of Probability

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What are the chances?

  • Of having a pop quiz in Math?
  • Of getting “heads” when you flip a coin?
  • Of you winning the lottery?
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
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Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle
Minimal Shapes Tile Patterns Triangle

Study the mean, median, mode and range of the data without 20.

Introduction

Which values changed and which stayed the same?

Mean

7.8

Median

8

Mode

8

Range

4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

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Geometric Quarter Circle Cut Out Shape

What number will you roll?

Possible Outcomes: 6

Sample Space: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Illustration of a Dice

We can group these outcomes into events such as:

rolling an even number or rolling a number greater than 3.

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Categories of Likelihood

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Unlikely

If it happens less than half the time

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Geometric Quarter Circle Shape

Even Chance

If it happens exactly half

the time

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Likely

If the event happens more than half the time

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Geometric Quarter Circle Shape
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Certain

If every outcome corresponds to the event

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Impossible

If no outcomes correspond to

the event

Can you think of one event per category?

How likely...

Considering a standard deck of cards, here are some events sorted into each category:

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Impossible

Drawing a blue card

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Unlikely

Drawing an Ace

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Geometric Quarter Circle Shape

Even Chance

Drawing a black card

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Likely

Drawing a card that is not 2

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Certain

Drawing a card that is a Spade, Heart, Club, or Diamond

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Probability as a Number

We can also use numbers to represent the likelihood of an outcome.

1

2

0.5

50%

0

0%

1

100%

3

10

20%

0.85

65%

Simple Handdrawn Doodle Bracket
Simple Handdrawn Doodle Bracket

Even Chance

Impossible

Certain

Likely

Unlikely

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The larger the number, the more likely it is. The smaller the number, the less likely it is.

We can use this equation to solve for the probability of an event

Probability =

number of times an event can happen

size of sample space

To find the probability as a percentage, convert the fraction to a decimal and multiply by 100%.

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What is the likelihood of landing on blue?

Remember these terms:

  • probability
  • trial
  • outcome
  • sample space


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Geometric Quarter Circle Cut Out Shape
  • likelihood
  • impossible
  • unlikely
  • even chance
  • likely
  • certain
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Questions or want to learn more?

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Reach out!

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Educational Resources

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Teacher Luna Walberg


hello@reallygreatsite.com

Review “Theoretical Probability as a Likelihood” and “Theoretical Probability as a Number” from Mathspace.

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Davis Thorne and Partners

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